The SIVRM Model for Hepatitis B Transmission Dynamics Hashem S. Arkok(a*), Tri Yunis Miko Wahono(a), Nurhayati Adnan Prihartono(a), Dipo Aldila(b)
a) Department of Public Health, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
b) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia.
Abstract
Background: Hepatitis B is a critical global health issue because of its association with severe liver complications. Efforts to control hepatitis B virus (HBV) and improve public health require understanding the transmission dynamics, especially considering the limitations of current models in addressing vaccination, loss of immunity, and the effects of HBV reactivation.
Objective: To construct a valid and reliable SIVRM (Susceptible - Infected -Vaccinated - Recovered - Mortality attributed to hepatitis B virus) mathematical and epidemiological dynamic model to simulate the transmission dynamics of HBV.
Methods: This study presents the SIVRM model, which expands the traditional SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model to capture the dynamics of HBV transmission. Through 14 compartments, distinguishing between vertical and horizontal transmission, the SIVRM model integrates vaccination, loss of immunity, and HBV reactivation to offer comprehensive insights into disease spread and control strategies. The basic reproductive number (R0) and the Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) have been derived using the SIVRM model.
Results: The derived DFE confirms that increasing newborn vaccination coverage significantly reduces the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. The basic reproductive number (R0) decreases as vaccination coverage improves, with higher recovery rates from acute HBV. However, the model also highlights the risk of HBV reactivation and immunity loss over time, which contribute to disease persistence. These findings emphasize that while vaccination is critical in controlling HBV transmission, reactivation and waning immunity must be addressed through long-term monitoring and booster vaccination strategies to prevent resurgence.
Conclusions: The SIVRM model provides comprehensive insights into HBV transmission dynamics and supports public health strategies aimed at reducing transmission. The findings demonstrate that vaccination is a key factor in lowering HBV incidence, but controlling reactivation and addressing waning immunity are essential for long-term eradication. Enhancing vaccination programmes and considering the loss of immunity are crucial for effective HBV control.