Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Savanna Changes and its Correlation with Deer and Bull Populations in Baluran National Park Himayah, S., Somantri, L., Fadhilah, A., and Sulastri, A.
Geography Information Science, Faculty of Social Science Education, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
Abstract
Baluran National Park, known as ^Little Africa in Java,^ is a rich conservation area featuring diverse ecosystems, including savanna. The savanna ecosystem within this national park faces a serious threat of land cover change from savanna to non-savanna. This change is primarily driven by the invasion of species like acacia, which was initially planted in the 1960s for forest and land fire mitigation. This invasion not only disrupts the original ecosystem but also threatens the survival of key herbivores such as deer and bull, which heavily rely on savanna vegetation as their primary food source. To address this issue, this research aims to: (1) analyze the changes of savanna vegetation using remote sensing technology, and (2) analyze the correlation between these changes and the population dynamics of deer and bull in Baluran National Park. The methods employed include the Random Forest algorithm for land cover change identification, the Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) for savanna vegetation density identification, and linear regression for analyzing the correlation. Preliminary results indicate that the savanna land cover area has continuously narrowed over the years, correlating with changes in deer and bull populations. This research is expected to enrich the application of remote sensing in savanna studies and support Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 15 regarding the restoration and sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems.
Keywords: remote sensing, Baluran National Park, land cover change, savanna, deer and bull populations.
