Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Soil Erosion in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Based on Coupled PLUS-RUSLE Modeling Kaitao Liao (a,b*), Zelong Wu(a,c), Yuejun Song(a,d), Liang Hu(c), Hui Lin(b)
a) jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering, 1038 Beijing East Road, Nanchang 330029, China
b) Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 30022, China
c) Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, 289 Tianxiang Road, Nanchang 330099, China
d) Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Watershed Soil and Water Conservation, 1038 Beijing East Road, Nanchang 330029, China
Abstract
This study focuses on the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone in China, integrating multi-source remote sensing data and geographic information data. Utilizing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 and simulated land use dynamics under different development scenarios for 2030-2035. Key findings include: (1) Land use changes from 2000-2020 were characterized by cropland reduction, forestland fluctuation, and built-up land expansion. Cropland changes were significantly constrained by topographic slope and population density, while forest dynamics correlated with precipitation and GDP distribution. (2) Soil erosion predominantly occurred at light to moderate levels, forming a ring-like distribution around Poyang Lake. The erosion intensity exhibited a fluctuating ^increase-decrease-increase^ pattern over two decades, with emerging risks of cross-intensity class transitions in later stages. (3) Projections to 2035 under three scenarios (ecological protection, cropland preservation, and natural development) all show significant reductions in total erosion area. The ecological protection scenario demonstrates superior mitigation of forestland erosion, while the cropland preservation scenario effectively controls moderate-to-severe cropland erosion. However, the natural development scenario still requires vigilance against localized erosion risks from built-up land expansion. These findings provide scientific bases for constructing regional ecological security barriers and formulating differentiated soil conservation policies, emphasizing the critical role of ecological protection in coordinating regional development.
Keywords: Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone- Soil Erosion- RUSLE- Land use- PLUS-
