Geospatial Assessment of Cultural Heritage Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazards in West Sulawesi: A Contribution to Disaster Risk Reduction and SDG Resilience
Yadi Mulyadi , Ilham Alimuddin , Muhammad Nur Akram

Department of Archaeology, Hasanuddin University
Department of Geology, Hasanuddin University
National Archaeology Indonesia

Abstract

West Sulawesi faces heightened seismic risks that threaten not only human settlements but also cultural heritage assets critical to education, tourism, and identity preservation. This study presents a geospatial vulnerability assessment of 70 cultural heritage sites using an integrated modeling approach that combines Frequency Ratio (FR) and Fuzzy Logic (FL), validated through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The results categorize heritage sites into three vulnerability levels-high (48 sites), moderate (20 sites), and low (2 sites)-based on spatial factors such as lithology, settlement proximity and density, road access, earthquake magnitude, fault line proximity, and epicenter distance. The FR model achieved an AUC Success of 0.753 and AUC Predictive of 0.598, indicating robust predictive capability. By identifying spatial patterns of vulnerability, this research supports geospatial disaster management strategies and informs targeted mitigation planning. Moreover, it aligns with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), by promoting resilient infrastructure and safeguarding cultural heritage in disaster-prone regions. The findings offer actionable insights for policymakers, conservationists, and urban planners seeking to integrate cultural resilience into broader disaster risk frameworks.

Keywords: Cultural heritage vulnerability, earthquake hazard, geospatial modeling, SDG resilience, West Sulawesi, Frequency Ratio, Fuzzy Logic

Topic: Topic E: Sustainable Development Goals