Spatial Modeling of Transition Dynamics in Indonesia^s New Capital (IKN): Planning, Monitoring, and Policy Implications
Amhar F. (1), Wibowo A. (2), Sa^dianoor (3)

1) Research Professor, Research Center for Geoinformatics, BRIN, Indonesia
2) Lecturer, Faculty for Forestry, Univ. Palangkaraya, Indonesia
3) Public Works and Housing Agency, Central Hulu Sungai Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

The relocation of Indonesia^s national capital from Jakarta to Nusantara (IKN) represents one of the most ambitious spatial, political, and environmental transitions in Southeast Asia in recent decades. While massive infrastructure development is underway, questions remain regarding the sustainability, ecological integrity, and spatial efficiency of the transition. This study aims to assess the spatial dynamics of IKN^s development using multi-temporal remote sensing data, integrated with land use modeling and institutional transition frameworks. We employ Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 imagery (2018-2025) to analyze land cover changes, deforestation trends, and urban sprawl patterns across the IKN and surrounding buffer zones. These geospatial observations are combined with a CA-Markov urban growth simulation to evaluate various policy-driven scenarios under different population and governance assumptions. Furthermore, we introduce a spatially-explicit ^Transition Maturity Index (TMI)^ to measure the functional readiness of each urban block, including infrastructure completeness, ecological resilience, and service accessibility. Preliminary findings indicate rapid landscape conversion in certain sectors, yet uneven institutional and population migration trends. The model also reveals potential inefficiencies in infrastructure placement that could result in over-investment in low-utility zones. Our results suggest that spatial intelligence must play a greater role in guiding phased development, enabling a more adaptive, cost-effective, and environmentally responsive transition toward national capital relocation. This paper provides both methodological and policy-relevant insights for planners, spatial analysts, and decision-makers navigating the complexity of large-scale capital transitions in developing nations.

Keywords: capital relocation, spatial policy, remote sensing, urban growth modeling, transition maturity Index (TMI)

Topic: Topic D: Geospatial Data Integration