Spatial Variation of Local Population in Inducement Areas under Urban Shrinkage
Ayano Shiraishi(a*),Kichiro Kumagai(b*)

a) Division of Social Development Engineering, Graduate school of Science and Engineering, Setsunan University
b) Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Setsunan University

Abstract

In Japan, the population peaked in 2008 and is now declining, with low birthrates and an ageing population. In addition to causing a reduction in society^s willingness to develop, such a population decline makes it difficult to maintain the quality of public services and may lead to further urban decline.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) has been promoting measures for Location Optimization Plan, which aims to direct residential and urban functions to specific areas to increase urban sustainability. However, ^urban spongification^, the random occurrence of vacant houses and lots in city centers, has been identified as an issue. The degradation of local communities and the deterioration of public safety and urban landscapes due to urban spongification may hinder the concentration of the population. The continuous monitoring of urban structure is required as a means of addressing urban spongification.
We have focused on the spatial distribution of the local population and developed a method to statistically define the areas where the population density is locally low. By iterating the calculation of the size of a locally low-density population area and visualizing the variation over multiple time periods, we were able to gain a detailed understanding of the variation in the spatial distribution of the local population. On the other hand, the characteristics of the local population distribution in the inducement areas have not been determined from the point of view of the analysis of urban spongification. In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial variation in the local population distribution through a comparison with land use status, using a method developed by the authors.

Keywords: local population dynamics, population decline, densely populated area, spatial autocorrelatio

Topic: Topic D: Geospatial Data Integration