Modeling Elementary School Dropout in East Java Province Using Binary Logistic Regression
Khomaria Nurul Ainy, Dedy Dwi Prastyo, Ismaini Zain

Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS-Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

Abstract

The primary school dropout in 2022 is 38,716 children, and East Java Province contributes 6.37% to the dropout rate at the national level. The problem of dropping out of school is a serious problem considering that the Law on the Indonesian National Education System states that every citizen aged seven to fifteen is required to attend basic education. The main objective of this study is to find out the factors that influence elementary school dropouts in East Java with dichotomous categorical response variables using binary logistic regression analysis. The data used in this research were 1,048,575 students consisting of 1 response variable and 10 predictor variable. The results of the study indicate that based on the analysis performed, the variable that has a significant effect on elementary school dropouts in East Java Province, Indonesia is the level of class (X2), age (X3), distance from home to school (X5), number of siblings (X6), repeat status (X7), parent^s job (X9), and parent^s income (X10). The results of this study can be used as a reference for dealing with the problem of dropping out of school, especially on the factors that have a significant effect on dropping out of school.

Keywords: elementary school dropouts- east java- binary logistic regression

Topic: Mathematics and Statistics